MRM Research Roundup: World Cup Lessons Learned, Ghosting Restaurants, and the Fry Audit | Modern Restaurant Management

This edition of Modern Restaurant Management (MRM) magazine’s Research Roundup features post-World Cup data, labor and turnover trends, the profitability gap, and why people ghost restaurants.

What the World Cup Taught Restaurants About Preparing for Growth 

The 2026 FIFA World Cup gave local restaurants a rare opportunity to reach new, global customers during an uncharacteristically busy period. Early excitement, visitor projections and activity in host cities, of course, suggested demand would increase, prompting many businesses to prepare well before the tournament began.

For many restaurants, those expectations proved accurate. Dining rooms filled, first-time customers walked through the door and sales spiked. But the World Cup also showed that demand alone doesn’t drive growth – how businesses prepare for that demand can have just as much impact.

New Xero research of 500 U.S. restaurant owners and managers found that success during the tournament depended on more than just attracting and feeding customers when they arrived at the front door; it depended on the decisions made before the first match, the financial flexibility owners had once demand arrived and the teams they relied on to deliver a strong customer experience. Understanding how to prepare for these peaks in business  can make the opportunities both easier to manage and more lucrative

Preparing for the Demand Beforehand

Preparing for a busy period requires businesses to make important decisions before they know exactly how demand will unfold. Ordering additional inventory, scheduling additional employees and planning promotions all require upfront investment, making preparation an exercise in balancing opportunity with uncertainty.

Many restaurants approached the World Cup with that mindset. According to our data, nearly two-thirds (65 percent) increased food inventory ahead of the tournament, while half adjusted staff schedules to support larger crowds. Another 47 percent introduced special menus or promotions, and 45 percent increased alcohol inventory in anticipation of stronger beverage sales.

Those decisions positioned many businesses to take advantage of the burgeoning foot traffic. During the tournament, 88 percent of restaurants reported being busier than usual, 79 percent welcomed unexpected new or first-time customers and 69 percent generated more revenue than during a typical period. Restaurants located in host cities experienced the strongest results, with 77 percent reporting revenue growth compared with 64 percent of those outside host markets.

The findings reinforce a broader lesson for small businesses. Growth often requires making investments before additional revenue arrives, and those decisions are easier to make when owners have confidence in their plans and a clear understanding of where to invest.

Cash Flow Can and Should Shape how Businesses Respond

Even the most thoughtful plans have limits. Customer demand can change quickly, particularly during major events like the World Cup, leaving businesses to make decisions in-real time while continuing to serve daily customers.

This was certainly reflected throughout the tournament. Forty-two percent of restaurants ran out of specific menu items, 38 percent reached seating capacity and 21 percent ran out of beer. These findings suggest that the challenge wasn’t necessarily a lack of preparation, but the difficulty of forecasting demand during an event with so many variables.

Financial flexibility plays an important role in short-term success. More than one-quarter (26 percent) of restaurants in host markets said cash flow significantly limited their ability to prepare, compared with 12 percent of those outside host markets. Whether purchasing additional inventory, extending staff hours or increasing marketing efforts, many businesses faced costs well before they realized the additional revenue.

For small businesses, this is a familiar balancing act. Having a clear understanding of cash flow doesn’t eliminate uncertainty, but it gives owners better information to decide where to invest, how much flexibility they have and how quickly they can respond as conditions change.

Preparing a Team for Growth

Planning for increased demand extends beyond inventory and finances. Businesses also need the people and capacity to deliver a consistent customer experience when volumes increase.

Half of restaurants adjusted staff schedules ahead of the World Cup, recognizing that higher demand would place additional pressure on their teams. Those staffing decisions helped businesses manage larger crowds while maintaining day-to-day operations during one of the busiest periods of the year.

The impact of those decisions extended beyond operational efficiency. Nearly eight in 10 restaurants welcomed unexpected first-time customers during the tournament, allowing businesses to introduce new guests to their brand. For many owners, busy periods are about more than increasing sales -they are an opportunity to create positive customer experiences that encourage repeat visits long after the event has ended.

Preparing a business for growth means preparing the people behind it, investing in the right staffing levels gives teams the capacity to meet higher demand while maintaining the level of service customers expect.

Lessons that Extend Beyond the World Cup

While the World Cup created a unique opportunity for restaurants, the business decisions behind their success are relevant far beyond a single tournament. Seasonal peaks, community events and holiday periods all require owners to make investments before they know exactly what demand will look like.

The findings suggest that businesses are in a stronger position when they understand their financial situation, prepare for expected demand and build the operational capacity to respond when plans change. Those principles apply whether a restaurant is preparing for a global sporting event or a neighborhood festival, and they offer a practical framework for any small business looking to approach future opportunities with greater confidence.

World Cup Windfall

FIFA projected the 2026 World Cup would generate an estimated $30.5 billion in economic output for the United States as co-host and new data from TouchBistro shows exactly how that windfall played out at the restaurant level. Across roughly 7,000 venues in the United States and Canada, the tournament delivered a 3 percent lift in restaurant sales, driven by some surprising shifts in diner behavior.

Key U.S. data includes:

• Monday-to-Thursday sales rose five to nine percent compared to the weeks before kickoff, while Fridays and Saturdays barely moved.
• The normally sleepy 4–5pm slot surged 30–44 percent when a game was on, creating a second happy hour, and midnight kickoffs more than doubled sales in time slots that are usually dead
• The average check during a live match hit $44, versus $33 outside match hours, and guests tipped 1.5 points more
• One in nine diners rode the tab past the final whistle: about 11 percent of all revenue was ordered during a live match but paid after full time — the “watching the game on a tab” effect, with a typical 35–40 minute gap between ordering and paying
• And during USA matches, American restaurants got a measurable home-team bump on top of the tournament-wide lift.

Beer Board’s World Cup Final Results

BeerBoard’s 2026 FIFA World Cup On-Premise Insights Report revealed the event drove significant growth across bars and restaurants (on-premise locations) over its five-week run. Rather than creating an even spike in sales, the tournament redistributed when, where, and what consumers purchased and those that leveraged historical sell-through data to optimize inventory, staffing, and product assortment were best positioned to maximize performance. 

Demand was heavily localized. Host states significantly outperformed non-host states across all major metrics.Volume and revenue spiked during Opening Week (Week 24, +17 percent), moderated through the mid-tournament, and surged  in Week 27 (+16 percent Volume / +17 percent Revenue) during the knockout rounds and U.S. team matches. Match times shifted volume away from weekends toward weekdays. Monday through Wednesday saw double-digit volume growth, while Saturday and Sunday saw notable declines.

For draft beer, revenue jumped 7.10 percent, volume grew 6.46 percent, and Rate of Sale (ROS) increased 13.33 percentcompared to the prior period. For packaged products, revenue increased 11.74 percent, volume grew 5.52 percent, and ROS increased 15.06 percent.

Cyclospora Traffic

Restaurant chains that saw significant foot traffic declines following the outbreak of Cyclospora in recent weeks are still seeing fewer customers—but the worst may be behind them. This most recent data update comprises foot traffic numbers between Saturday, July 18 and Thursday, July 23—the corrected and updated data that I had sent you before, too, remains the same.

The data: Here are the foot traffic numbers on Thursday, July 23 (compared to the day-of-week average between January 1 and July 6, 2026) for some of the most deeply-affected dining chains:

Placer.ai data indicates that Taco Bell’s visit trends have improved since bottoming out on July 17–18 but remain roughly 20 percent below day-of-week averages (from January 1-July 6, 2026). Most QSR and fast-casual chains have rebounded in recent days, with visit trends now outpacing day-of-week averages. Salad chains like Chopt, however, remain below day-of-week averages (from January 1-July 6, 2026).

The Restaurant Divide

The newly released June 2026 Fiserv Small Business Index provides real-time clarity into how consumers are actually splitting their spending between the dining room and the counter. 

Derived from point-of-sale transaction data across approximately two million U.S. small businesses, the latest figures show that while overall restaurant spending is holding steady, there is a clear divide in where consumers see value. More specifically:

• Restaurant sales edged back into positive territory. Sales ticked up +0.2 percent year over year, a welcome improvement from the falling sales numbers seen the previous month.

• Higher check sizes continue to carry the sector, which increased +3.3 percent year over year.

• Fast food restaurants continued to lag behind previous years’ benchmarks but full-service restaurant performance remained comparatively steady, anchored by stable consumer demand and resilient pricing.

• Outside of dining out, grocery and specialty Food and Beverage Retailers stabilized after experiencing prior month-over-month declines.

Turnover Trends

A new article by Escoffier Global analyzes historical BLS data on how often workers leave their jobs in the restaurant and hospitality industry.

The restaurant and hospitality industries consistently report some of the highest turnover rates in the U.S.In the most recent data, it fell to 65.5 percent from 75.5 percent in 2023.

Lower turnover rates across the whole industry may not point to better retention, but signal a recession in the economy. The figures reflect the total separation rate for the accommodation and food services sector as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This sector includes restaurants, hotels, bars, and other hospitality businesses. Total separations encompass voluntary quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations.

The Restaurant and Hospitality Industry Turnover Outpaces The Economy

The accommodation and food services sector averaged 75.6 percent annual turnover in 2021. Even excluding the anomalous 2020 pandemic year, the long-term average holds at 73.3 percent. By comparison, total nonfarm employment averaged 43.4 percent over the same period, so turnover in the restaurant and hospitality industry is more than 1.7 times higher than the national average.

The Restaurant and Hospitality Industry May Be Indicating Recession Patterns

Over the long term, the rate tends to decline during periods of economic stress, when workers may be less willing to voluntarily leave jobs, and rise during periods of growth and labor market tightness. Turnover dropped significantly between 2009 and 2015 in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Now industry rates (65.6 percent in 2024 and 65.5 percent in 2025) are closer to those recession-era lows than to the pre-pandemic highs of the mid-to-late 2010s.

High Turnover Is a Challenge, But Also A Sign of Stability

Multiple factors drive above-average turnover in restaurants and hospitality, including a high proportion of part-time and hourly workers, seasonal fluctuations in business volume, and physically demanding working conditions. The industry also employs a large share of younger workers, who are likely to transition from employment to education or to another job. The lower rates suggest that current economic conditions may be dampening worker mobility rather than reflecting a structural improvement in retention.

Understanding the Restaurant Profitability Gap

A Restaurant Profitability Gap—a measurable difference in business performance between restaurants using AI to turn operational data into intelligent action and those that have yet to adopt AI was identified in Restaurant365’s  2026 State of the Restaurant Industry Mid-Year Report.

Drawing on survey responses from more than 420 restaurant operators representing nearly 10,000 U.S. restaurant locations across quick-service, fast casual, casual dining, fine dining, pizza, and coffee concepts, the research suggests AI is beginning to create meaningful separation in restaurant performance. Operators using AI report stronger results across key profitability drivers, including food costs, labor costs, and operational efficiency.

The findings come as restaurant operators continue to navigate elevated costs while benefiting from improving guest traffic and growing economic optimism. Rather than relying primarily on menu price increases, many operators are improving margins through better operational execution and increasingly, AI-enabled decision making.

Restaurant365’s research suggests the industry’s growing adoption of AI is beginning to create measurable differences in operational performance. Sixty-two percent of operators have implemented or plan to implement AI in at least one back-office function—more than double the level reported at the beginning of the year. Reporting and analytics lead adoption, followed by scheduling and inventory forecasting.

Among operators actively using AI:

• 61 percent report reduced food costs

• 62 percent report reduced labor costs

• 88 percent report saving time every week

• Nearly one-third report cost reductions of 6 percent or more

The data suggests restaurants using AI-assisted forecasting, scheduling, and cost management are better positioned to convert improving traffic into stronger profitability. For operators not yet adopting AI, the leading barriers remain data privacy and security concerns (37 percent), confidence in output accuracy (34 percent), implementation cost (29 percent), and uncertainty about where to begin (18 percent).

Industry Conditions Beginning to Improve

While cost pressures remain, operators are becoming more optimistic about the second half of 2026.

Eighty-three percent of operators reported food cost increases during the first half of the year, while 75 percent experienced higher labor costs. Encouragingly, only 59 percent expect labor costs to continue rising through year-end—the lowest reading in three years of Restaurant365 research and a significant improvement from the beginning of the year.

Operators are also becoming less reliant on menu price increases to protect margins. Just 52 percent increased menu prices in response to food inflation, down from 66 percent at the start of the year, as more restaurants turn to inventory management, waste reduction, and supplier optimization.

Guest traffic has also rebounded more quickly than expected. At the beginning of 2026, only 28 percent of operators reported increased traffic. Mid-year, that figure has climbed to 46 percent, while 62 percent now expect traffic growth during the second half of the year.

The Staffing Challenge Is Evolving

Despite improving business conditions, recruiting and retaining employees remains among the industry’s most frequently cited challenge. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data puts restaurant turnover at approximately 74 percent as of March 2026. Black Box Intelligence, whose monthly workforce data represents the restaurant industry’s most widely cited labor benchmark, reports that non-management turnover in limited-service restaurants declined seven percentage points year-over-year in Q1 2026, reflecting early returns on pandemic-era wage investments, but structural challenges.

What is changing is how operators are addressing it. For the first time in Restaurant365’s research, better training programs have overtaken pay increases as the most frequently cited employee retention strategy. That shift reflects an evolution of what it takes to keep people: competitive compensation opens the door, but sustained investment in development, culture, and day-to-day experience determines whether employees stay.

Looking Ahead

As AI adoption accelerates across the industry, Restaurant365 believes the Restaurant Profitability Gap will become an increasingly important benchmark for understanding operational performance.

Mid-Year Trend Forecast

The 2026 State of the Restaurant Industry Mid-Year Report provides restaurant leaders with benchmarking data and practical insights across food costs, labor, staffing, guest traffic, AI adoption, and profitability to help operators evaluate where they stand and identify opportunities to improve performance in the second half of the year.

PAR analyzed data across thousands of restaurants and foodservice locations to understand relevant trends heading into the second half of the year. The data tells a story about which parts of the industry are growing and how they’re doing it.

A few standouts:

Consumers are consolidating spending toward brands they trust and brands that reward them. Across loyalty programs, sales grew over 14 percent YoY from January to May. Guests were up 10 percent and transactions up nearly 10 percent. At the same time, industry forecasts put full-year traffic growth under one percent.

The pizza industry is consolidating into larger, rarer occasions .Pizza transactions fell nine percent YoY, but average check jumped nearly 16 percent (nearly four times the rate of menu inflation) while the guest base flattened.

Chicken is outpacing burger concepts. Chicken concepts grew guests 27 percent and sales 24 percent YoY with flat check sizes. Burger concepts are the opposite: sales grew almost 7 percent, but transactions fell 3 percent while average check climbed 10 percent.

Beverage and breakfast concepts pull ahead. Beverage led all categories at nearly 57 percent sales growth, driven almost entirely by new guest additions. Breakfast grew 33 percent on volume, not price. =

Why People Ghost Restaurants 

As food allergies shape more dining decisions across groups and households, restaurants may be losing significant revenue before guests ever walk through the door. The Nutritics 2026 Allergy Dining Report found unclear allergen information puts an estimated $78 in table spend at risk each time an allergy-affected diner chooses another restaurant, adding up to an estimated $12.6 billion in annual restaurant revenue at risk across the U.S.

Nutritics surveyed 1,000 U.S. adults ages 18 and older in June 2026 using the third-party survey platform Pollfish. Eligible respondents must have dined out more than once in the past six months. Respondents also had to report that food allergies or intolerances, whether their own or those of a household member, friend or coworker they frequently eat with, factor into their dining decisions.

Key findings include:

• Unclear allergen information puts an estimated $78 in table spend at risk every time an allergy-affected diner chooses another restaurant, creating a $12.6 billion blind spot for restaurant owners and operators.

• Nearly all (95 percent) of allergy-affected diners have decided against a restaurant at least occasionally because they couldn’t easily find clear allergen information.

• Only 1 in 4 (24 percent) say they’re fully confident the answer is a confirmed fact when a server says they’ll check with the kitchen about an allergen.

• 61 percent have decided to skip eating out and eat at home instead after deciding a safe restaurant felt like too much work to find.

• More than half (51 percent) have chosen to try a new restaurant over a familiar one because the new restaurant’s allergen information was clearer or more reliable.

• 71 percent say they’d eat at a restaurant more often if it had clear, easy-to-find allergen information.

• More than half (52 percent) have recommended a specific restaurant to others because they trusted its allergen information.

• Among parents whose child’s allergy shapes dining decisions, 78 percent say they’d eat out more often at a restaurant with clear allergen information.

• The top factor that would increase trust in a restaurant’s allergen practices, cited by 57 percent of respondents, is allergens clearly marked on every menu item.

The findings suggest clear allergen information has become a direct factor in restaurant choice. Diners are screening menus before they commit, and many are willing to change plans, stay home or pick a competitor when the information is vague or missing.

Family Mealtime Shifts 

As families head into the second half of 2026, Kidfresh is seeing shifts in how parents handle mealtime, nutrition, and convenience. From growing demand for protein-packed foods to more flexible eating routines, today’s families are redefining everyday meals amid increasingly busy schedules. Parents are looking for realistic meal solutions that simplify life while helping them feel good about what they’re serving their children. Work schedules, summer travel, sports, camps, and after-school activities influence how and when families eat together.

Kidfresh says many of these behaviors are becoming more visible across the grocery aisle as families prioritize products that balance convenience, nutrition, and kid-approved flavors.

Protein-Forward Foods Continue Driving Purchasing Decisions

Protein remains one of the biggest influences shaping family food purchases. Parents are paying closer attention to protein content and sources when choosing meals and snacks for their children as part of an ongoing focus on balanced nutrition.

What was once primarily associated with fitness and wellness trends has become a larger part of family mealtime, with more parents seeking protein-rich options that fit busy routines.

Convenience Is No Longer Optional

Convenience continues to reshape family mealtime. Between work, activities, travel, and packed schedules, households are prioritizing foods that can be prepared quickly without added stress.

Kidfresh says families no longer view convenience and nutrition as separate priorities. Instead, parents increasingly expect products to deliver both.

Flexible Mealtimes Continue Replacing Traditional Dinner Routines

Traditional sit-down dinners are becoming less consistent as more households incorporate smaller meals, snack-style eating, and grab-and-go options throughout the day, especially during summer months and other activity-heavy seasons.

Parents Are Looking for Easier Nutrition Wins

Parents continue seeking practical ways to improve everyday meals without creating added friction at mealtime. Interest continues to grow in foods that incorporate vegetables, balanced ingredients, and familiar flavors kids enjoy.

According to the company, many families are moving away from perfection-focused approaches to nutrition and instead prioritizing practical, sustainable habits that help reduce stress and mealtime battles.

Value-Conscious Shopping Continues Influencing Grocery Decisions

As grocery prices remain top of mind, families are becoming more intentional about meal planning and grocery purchases. Parents are increasingly prioritizing products that deliver a balance of convenience, nutritional value, and affordability.

Kidfresh says this mindset is shaping not only what families purchase, but also how they manage portions, reduce food waste, and build weekly meal routines at home.

The company first highlighted many of these emerging trends in its 2026 food and nutrition outlook earlier this year and says the behaviors have continued gaining momentum as families adapt to evolving routines and changing priorities heading into the second half of 2026.

Freshness Reimagined 

Freshness Reimagined: The New Role of Food in Everyday Life from Imagine, examines how food has evolved beyond a transaction to become a defining factor in brand perception, customer loyalty, and store choice. The report highlights the growing influence of fresh, ready-to-eat, and convenience-focused food offerings as consumers increasingly seek elevated experiences that fit seamlessly into their daily lives.

The report explores a significant shift occurring across multiple industries. Whether consumers are visiting a convenience store, grocery store, quick-service restaurant, mass retailer, or specialty retailer, food is becoming a powerful differentiator that drives traffic, influences purchasing decisions, and strengthens brand affinity. Freshness, convenience, quality, and presentation are no longer optional—they are central to how consumers evaluate brands and 

The report is particularly relevant for leaders across convenience stores, grocery, QSR, retail, and specialty retail, where food offerings are becoming a strategic growth driver. From expanding prepared foods programs and grab-and-go solutions to creating differentiated in-store dining experiences, organizations are looking for new ways to elevate food as part of the overall customer journey.

Imagine partners with many of the nation’s most recognized brands to transform food environments into high-performing experiences. Through a combination of strategy, design, creative development, production, signage, décor, menu systems, digital experiences, and large-scale rollout execution, Imagine helps organizations create food destinations that drive engagement, improve operational consistency, and strengthen brand connection across every location.

National Fry Audit

According to the new Checkers & Rally’s National Fry Audit, conducted by The Harris Poll among over 2,000 U.S. adults, 60 percent of Americans admit they’ve ordered an extra order of fries simply because they didn’t want to share. The survey also found that 82 percent chose a fast-food restaurant specifically because they were craving its fries, while 63 percent say the quality of the fries is extremely or very important when deciding which fast-food restaurant to eat at–proving that fries have become much more than a side dish.

The National Fry Audit also uncovered what separates good fries from great ones:

• 75 percent of Americans say crispiness is extremely or very important when it comes to great French fries.

• 27 percent say crispiness is the quality most often missing when they order fries at a fast-food restaurant.

• 72 percent believe serving soggy fries should be considered a food crime.

The survey also revealed generational differences in fry preferences. Boomers (ages 62-80) and Gen X (ages 46-61) are more likely than Millennials (ages 30-45) and Gen Z (ages 18-29) to say fries served hot are extremely or very important (92 percent and 91 percent versus 84 percent and 79 percent, respectively). Meanwhile, Millennials (64 percent) and Gen Z (61 percent) are more likely than Gen X (53 percent) and Boomers (28 percent) to say bold seasoning flavor is extremely or very important.