MRM Research Roundup: Food & Wine Trends, Lunch Money, and Brewing Up Success | MRM Research Roundup: Food & Wine Trends, Lunch Money, and Brewing Up Success | Modern Restaurant Management

This edition of Modern Restaurant Management (MRM) magazine’s Research Roundup features menu price trends, Black Friday gift card sales, workforce lunch costs, top fast foods, and key 2026 culinary and cocktail forecasts.

Restaurant Jobs Outlook

According to the November 2025 report on the salary outlook for culinary and hospitality careers, restaurant cooks are projected to see the fastest job growth at 15 percent in the next decade. A new analysis by the culinary school Escoffier explored wage growth, job demand, and opportunities across hospitality positions.

• Employment for chefs is projected to grow about seven percent over the next decade, significantly faster than average.

• Bartenders had the highest salary compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the last five years, with an increase of 7.2 percent.

• Lodging managers are projected to have the highest median salary at $106.7K by 2034.

This analysis examined the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data and industry research to provide a comprehensive look at the salary outlook for seven key culinary and hospitality positions through 2034.

1. Chefs and head cooks

• 2024 Median Salary: $60.9K

• 2019-2024 Salary CAGR: 3.43 percent

• Estimated 2034 Median Salary: $85.4K

• Projected Job Growth (2024-2034): seven percent

Employment for chefs is projected to grow about seven percent over the next decade, significantly faster than average. This growth, combined with approximately 24,000 annual openings created by retirements and career transitions, translates into many work opportunities. The salary picture also continues to improve, with median pay projected to rise up to $85K by 2034.

2. Food service managers

Food service management positions are projected to grow six percent through 2034, comfortably exceeding broader economic growth rates. As food service operations expand, the demand for managers grows proportionally, with approximately 42,000 annual openings. The current median pay of about $65K is projected to increase to more than $91K over the next ten years as competition for experienced managers intensifies.

3. Lodging managers

Lodging management shows more modest growth at 3 percent, reflecting a relatively mature hotel sector. With only about 52,000 jobs nationwide, this is a competitive field where advancement requires both skill and strategic career management. The current median pay is around $68K, and could rise to nearly $107K by 2034.

4. Bartenders

Bartending represents one of the more accessible entry points into hospitality, with projected job growth around six percent and massive turnover creating more than 130,000 annual openings. Median base pay sits around $33.5K annually, and is projected to rise to more than $67K by 2034. However, tips can easily inflate that figure in busy establishments. Entry barriers remain low, with no formal credentials required beyond meeting the legal drinking age and possibly obtaining responsible alcohol service certification.

5. Bakers

Baking occupations show a healthy six percent projected growth through 2034, comfortably above the broader economy’s pace. With approximately 40,000 annual job openings, mostly driven by turnover in retail bakery positions, opportunities exist throughout the sector. Median pay was around $36.6K last year, and is projected to rise to roughly $64K over the next ten years.

Tracking Menu Prices

Prices have slightly increased across all tracked menu items in comparison to October 2025 and November 2024, according to Toast’s latest Menu Price Monitor.

🍔Burger Prices Rise Again: The median price of a burger in November was $14.57, rising 0.3 percent from October 2025. Year-over-year, prices are up 3.0 percent since November 2024.
 

🧊Cold Brew Keeps Climbing: The median price of cold brew in November was $5.54, rising 0.2 percent since October 2025. Year-over-year, prices are up 4.5 percent since November 2024.
 

☕️Regular Coffee Creeps Up: The median price of regular coffee in November was $3.59, up 0.6 percent since October 2025. Year-over-year, prices are up 3.5 percent since November 2024.
 

🌯Burrito Prices Hold Steady: The median price of a burrito in November was $13.43, flat since October 2025. Year-over-year, prices are up 3 percent since November 2024.
 

🍻Beer Prices Hit Pause: The median price of a beer in November was $6.50, remaining unchanged since October 2025. Year-over-year, prices are up 2.2 percent since November 2024.
 

🍗Chicken Wings Take Flight (Slightly): The median price of wings in November was $13.79, rising 0.5 percent since October 2025. Year-over-year, prices are up 1.8 percent since November 2024.

Catering Instead of Cooking

Both businesses and consumers increasingly trade cooking for restaurant catering. Data from Toast and ezCater from November-December (compared to the rest of the year), reveals catering emerged as a meaningful revenue driver.

🎉 Holiday Party Boom: Toast’s report shows catering orders were up 26 percent QoQ in Q4 2024, with holiday parties as the biggest driver. Additionally, around 41 percent of consumers reported considering ordering catering for Christmas.

💰 Bigger, More Indulgent Orders: ezCater data show holiday orders are 25 percent more likely to include desserts and drinks, and the average order is 40 percent higher than at other times of year – pointing to a demand for complete meal experiences.

🦃 Holiday Favorites: According to ezCater, the most popular items this season are holiday meal bundles (turkey or chicken with sides), whole pies (apple, pumpkin, and specialty flavors), and donuts, a go-to for breakfast meetings.

Active Sale Leaseback Market

According to updated analysis from SLB Capital Advisors, the sale leaseback market for restaurant operators has remained active from 2024 through late 2025. Nearly $300 million in cumulative transaction volume was raised across almost 100 deals. This volume demonstrates continued appetite from among restaurant operators to unlock real estate value and from investors drawn to the durable cash flows of long-term net lease restaurant assets.

“Restaurant operators continue to use sale leasebacks as a flexible capital tool—funding remodels, technology upgrades, and growth initiatives while maintaining operational control of their properties,” said Scott Merkle, Managing Partner at SLB Capital Advisors. 

Notable Restaurant Sale Leaseback Transactions

(Representative transactions based on sector analysis; sources: CoStar, public filings, and SLB Capital Advisors estimates.)

 

• Healthy activity levels: Restaurant SLB volume since the beginning of 2024 has totaled approximately $295 million across more than 98 transactions, indicating ongoing market liquidity.

• Sustained investor demand: Continued competition among net lease REITs and private buyers underscores confidence in the restaurant sector’s long-term fundamentals.

• Capital efficiency driving activity: Operators are leveraging sale leasebacks as an efficient source of growth and refinancing capital while preserving operational control

• Diverse operator participation: Activity spans QSR, fast casual, and casual dining segments, from corporate operators to multi-unit franchisees.

SLB Capital Advisors expects restaurant sale leaseback activity to remain solid into 2026 as operators continue to optimize balance sheets, manage refinancing exposure, and monetize owned real estate. Investor interest remains strong from both public REITs and private funds seeking long-term, inflation-hedged income streams backed by leading restaurant brands.

Black Friday Gift Card Sales

Paytronix reports that restaurant gift card sales saw a consumer shift to earlier purchases over the Thanksgiving weekend with overall Black Friday and weekend sales up year-over-year. The trend toward earlier gift card purchases saw Cyber Monday sales fall approximately seven percent compared to 2024. Additionally, the average dollars loaded per card saw a significant decrease specifically on Black Friday – the concept mix also shifted with FSR card sales increasing while QSR declined in both dollars and load amounts.  

In addition, Paytronix found that channel sales are evolving with third-party sales increasing and in-store sales down, as overall sales remained consistent. Specifically, corporate sales increased to $641.2 million worth of cards sold in 2025 vs. $561.5 million in 2024. Year-over-year digital sales remained flat at $7.8 million. In-store sales were slightly down with $8.6 million purchased in 2025 vs. $8.8 million in 2024 while third-party sales were up with $2.6 million sold in 2025 vs. $2 million in 2024.  

Dollars in Cards Sold by Day – On Black Friday $6.5 million in cards was sold in 2025 vs. $6.3 million in 2024. Overall weekend sales came in at $6.5 million for 2025 vs. $6 million 2024.  Cyber Monday sales were down at $6.6 million for 2025 vs. $6.8 million for 2024. 

Total Cards Sold by Day – Black Friday saw 112.8 thousand cards sold in 2025 vs 108.8 thousand in 2024. Weekend sales came in at 124.4 thousand for 2025 vs. 119.1 thousand for 2024. Cyber Monday sales were down with 131.1. thousand cards sold in 2025 vs. 141.4 thousand in 2024. 

Average Dollars Loaded per Card – Paytronix found that Black Friday saw the largest trek downward with an average of $47 loaded per card in 2025 vs. $56 in 2024. Overall, the weekend average was up slightly with $52 per card in 2025 vs. $50 in 2024. Finally, Cyber Monday saw an upturn as well with an average of $49 loaded on cards in 2025 vs. $47 in 2024. 

Across Food Concepts – For FSRs, Black Friday 2025 followed the overall trend with $63 loaded per card vs. $68 in 2024. The weekend was up with $65 for 2025 vs. $62 last year, and Cyber Monday also was up $63 vs $61. 

For QSRs, Black Friday card loads were down significantly with an average of $29 per card in 2025 vs. $40 in 2024. The weekend was flat with an average card load of $37, and Cyber Monday was flat as well at $33 loaded per card. 

Paytronix also looked at the overall dollars in cards sold by concept and discovered that Breakfast QSRs sold $215.3 thousand worth of cards in 2025 vs. $190.2 thousand in 2024. FSRs sold $13.7 million in 2025 vs $12.2 million 2025. QSR sales were down with $5.7 million in 2025 vs. $6.7 million 2024. 

Total Cards Redeemed by Day – Looking at redemptions, consumers were much more willing to use gift cards they have saved throughout the year with an 8.1 percent increase across the board.  

• Black Friday saw 37.9 thousand cards redeemed in 2025 vs. 34.8 thousand in 2024.  

• Over the weekend, 65.2 thousand cards were redeemed in 2025 vs. 60.8 thousand in 2024.  

• On Cyber Monday, 26.5 thousand cards were redeemed vs. 24.2 thousand in 2024. 

Guests Still Seek Value

Fiserv’s November Small Business Index shows diners continue to seek low-cost options with quick-service restaurants outperforming full-service establishments. Overall, restaurant sales remained nearly flat, primarily due to price increases. People are buying fewer meals (transactions fell 1.7 percent), but they are paying more for each meal (average ticket size increased 1.6 percent).

Highlights:

• Bars and Pubs: Saw a slight +0.5 percent YoY increase with flat foot traffic. When inflation is taken into consideration, sales were down 3.2 percent YoY. 

• Quick-service: Sales rose +0.4 percent YoY, while transactions fell -2.3 percent YoY. Inflation-adjust sales also fell 3.2 percent YoY. 

• Full-service: Sales fell -0.7 percent YoY with foot traffic also falling 0.6 percent YoY. Inflation-sales fell -4.3 percent YoY.

• Holiday Impact: The week leading up to the holiday (11/20-11/26) saw a 3.6 percent increase in sales. Thanksgiving and Black Friday maintained this trend with increases of +2.6 percent YoY and +2.9 percent YoY, respectively. 

Brewing Up Success

Coffee chains are brewing up success. Can other restaurants utilize their strategies? They can, according to a new Placer.ai white paper. 

The paper explains that “even as consumers wrestle with higher prices and trim discretionary spending, they continue to show up for cold foam, caffeinated boosts, and treat-worthy daily indulgences.” Throughout the past year, coffee chains have seen consistent foot traffic growth, and some have even expanded their footprints. As for the specific strategies they’re using? 

Here are key strategies coffee chains are using to grow, as identified by Placer.ai. Strategic expansion into under-penetrated regions can supercharge growth. YoY visits to coffee chains are growing fastest in areas of the Southeast and Sunbelt where the category still accounts for a relatively low share of dining visits.  

• Pairing craveable products with genuinely human, personalized service can build durable loyalty. Aroma Joe’s proves that when standout offerings are combined with warm, consistent personal touches, brands can create habit loops that drive repeat visits even in crowded markets. 

• Prioritizing hyper-efficient convenience models can unlock meaningful growth. Scooter’s Coffee demonstrates that fast, reliable, frictionless experiences can materially increase traffic while supporting rapid expansion.

• Building recurring limited-time rituals can create predictable demand spikes and deepen engagement. From the annual Pumpkin Spice Latte launch to Jackpot Day, coffee chains show that ritualized promotions can “own the calendar,” generating predictable traffic spikes and deepening emotional engagement. 

• Using scarce, hype-driven offerings can generate high-impact moments that shift behavior. Starbucks’ Bearista drop illustrates how limited, buzzworthy merchandise or products can not only spike visits but also shift customer behavior, driving traffic outside typical dayparts. 

• Leveraging cultural collaborations can create excitement without relying on discounts. Dunkin’s Wicked partnership shows that tapping into moments in pop culture can deliver multi-day visit lifts comparable to major promotions – often without relying on giveaways.

Starbucks and Dunkin’ are seeing foot traffic gains to end 2025, according to a new Placer.ai report. The report shows that during Q3, visits were up 0.7 percent year-over-year at Starbucks and 1.7 percent at Dunkin’ — notable improvements from Q1.

Holiday Menu Magic

Seasonal offerings at both chains have likely helped increase visits, including Starbucks’ Bearista launch and Red Cup Day promotions, the report notes. Dunkin’, too, had its Wicked collab and other holiday menu additions.

America’s Favorite Fast Food 

Pizza has dethroned burgers as America’s favorite fast food for the first time in modern history, according to a comprehensive new survey of 2,000 Americans conducted by MandoeMedia.com. The study reveals pizza now commands 30.7 percent of preferences compared to burgers at 29.3 percent, marking a watershed moment in American dining culture.

The November 2025 survey, which collected responses from 47 states, exposed a nation grappling with fast food sticker shock. A staggering 77 percent of respondents reported that fast food has become “much more expensive,” with the average American now dropping $36.62 weekly on their fast food fix – that’s $1,904 annually.

The Great American Food Divide

The data reveals America isn’t one fast food nation but several distinct food cultures. While pizza claimed the national crown, regional preferences tell a different story:

• The “Burger Belt” stretches across Western states, with California (53 percent) and Arizona (50 percent) firmly rejecting the pizza revolution

• The Northeast forms a “Pizza Corridor,” with Massachusetts and Pennsylvania both showing 55 percent+ pizza preference

• The South remains Chick-fil-A country, with the chain commanding nearly 20 percent market share regionally

McDonald’s Under Pressure

While McDonald’s maintains its position as America’s favorite fast food chain at 17.3 percent, Chick-fil-A is breathing down its neck at 16.1 percent – a gap of just 1.2 percent. The data suggests McDonald’s dominance comes from breadth rather than depth, losing ground to regional favorites in key markets like California, where Burger King surprisingly takes the crown.

The $1,900 Habit Americans Can’t Kick

Despite giving fast food a failing health grade of just 2.9 out of 10, Americans can’t quit their habit. More than 41 percent eat fast food multiple times weekly, with some states showing even higher dependency:

• Arizona leads the pack with 62.5 percent eating fast food multiple times per week

• New Jersey follows at 58.3 percent

• Only 0.5 percent of Americans never eat fast food

French fries remain the universal unifier, with 71.4 percent of Americans consuming them regularly – the highest of any fast food item.

What Americans Want

When asked about improvements they’d like to see, health and freshness topped the list (30.8 percent), followed by price concerns (18.4 percent) and quality improvements (18.7 percent). Only one percent expressed interest in more plant-based options, suggesting the vegan fast food revolution has stalled.

Lunch Money

How much does the “Return to Office” era really cost American workers?

A new study by BLogic Systems set out to answer exactly that. The average office lunch now costs $23.60 in major urban cities, and for many workers, it’s become one of the most expensive parts of being back in the office.

The study uses BLogic System’s Lunch Cost Model, which compares the actual cost of an office-day meal, a home-packed meal, weekly spending patterns, and annual totals. Based on this model, researchers identified four common lunch habits and calculated how each one impacts a worker’s yearly budget.

Key Findings:

• Buying lunch daily costs workers $5,664 a year, with typical meals being between $18–$23.

• For hybrid workers, the cost of coffee and lunch is about $55 per office day, making the first 2 hours effectively unpaid.

• Tuesdays through Thursdays have become the most expensive days of the week, as team lunches and social pressure push workers to skip packing food from home.

Here is a look at the costs associated with the most common workforce dining profiles:

Profile	Annual Cost	Impact
The “Daily Diner” (Fast Casual)	$5,664.00	Severe
The “Hybrid Balance” (3 Days)	$3,878.40	High
The “Fast Food Regular”	$2,774.40	Moderate
The “Strategic Packer”	$1,320.00	Low

The “Daily Diner” spends $5,664.00 yearly on lunch alone

Daily diners face the highest lunch costs in the workforce. Popular “healthy” options such as grain bowls, salads, and protein plates now cost $18–$23 per meal, which in many cases is more than the average U.S. hourly wage. Add a cup of coffee, and a regular office day can cost more than $15 before the afternoon even starts.

Hybrid workers face the second-highest “Cost of Showing Up”

Even with two days at home, hybrid employees still face $3,398.40 in annual costs for just showing up. On office days, spending on lunch, coffee, and commuting totals about $55 per day. Because hybrid workers are on-site less often, office days usually become social lunch days, which increases spending on Tuesdays through Thursdays.

Fast-food buyers are no longer saving as much as they used to

Fast food used to be the cheaper alternative, but steady price increases have changed that. With the average meal now costing $11.56, this group spends nearly $2,800 a year, which is not far behind premium options.

The “Packer” remains the most cost-effective profile

A home-packed meal averages $5.50, keeping weekly spending low and annual costs minimal. Compared to a Daily Diner, packing lunch saves workers over $4,300 a year, making it the only option that consistently beats inflation.

Consumer Insights: The “Little Treat” Culture

The study shows that these numbers are not caused by the rising prices alone. According to a recent survey, 51 percent of Millennial and Gen Z workers rely on small rewards, $6 coffees, and mid-day “sweet treats” to remain motivated during the workday.

Liquid Insights

Southern Glazer’s Wine & Spirits announced findings from its 2026 Liquid Insights Tour, an educational initiative focused on exploring the top trends shaping the wine and spirits industry. Building on the success of the Company’s 2022 and 2024 U.S. tours, the tour went international to London and Paris to uncover what beverage trends are on the horizon. Spanning 31 restaurants and bars, the tour reveals what’s emerging in the industry before it hits the mainstream in 2026.

The Europe circuit marks an expansion of the Liquid Insights Tour targeting a diverse mix of cocktail-forward bars, trendsetting casual and polished restaurants, and fine dining institutions known for both creative wine lists and innovative spirits programs. The Southern Glazer’s team prioritized contemporary and traditional venues, new cultural perspectives, and forward-thinking beverage strategies designed to influence what consumers will soon be sipping.

The 2026 tour captures emerging trends in the industry and was led by Brian Masilionis, Senior Director of On-Premise Channel Insights, and Debbi Peek, Director of Mixology, National Accounts On-Premise. The team set out to better understand how these cities are interpreting identified trends and what new opportunities lay ahead for the U.S. market, where beverage alcohol plays an integral part in creating moments that matter.

The top 10 spirits and wine trends identified include:

1. Rise of Cordials and Aperitifs

Cordials, aperitifs and Amari top the spirit list, outpacing traditional bases like gin, vodka, whiskey and rum. This reflects a growing preference for approachable, flavor-forward cocktails. While most drinks still feature a lead spirit, the incorporation of multiple cordials and aperitifs to add complexity is significantly present on menus.

2. Infused Innovation

Parisian and London bars embrace culinary artistry, like yogurt clarifications, butter and duck fat washes, and rotary evaporator “distillates” to create layered, chef-inspired drinks. Botanicals and spices such as basil, jasmine, cardamom, tonka bean, and coriander were widely used, sometimes explained in dedicated menu sections. Teas also play a starring role, incorporated as ingredients or for quick infusions.

3. Tiny Pours and Tasting Menus

Mini martinis and curated tasting menus are trending, offering guests variety, less alcohol per drink, value, and a playful approach to discovery. Smaller pours and reservation-only tasting experiences encourage moderation while letting guests explore new favorites. Unlike U.S.-style “flights,” these “Tiny Pours” are designed to be enjoyed individually. Wine pairings follow suit, from polished Asian restaurants to Michelin-starred West African venues, with pre-selected pours complementing pre-set, multi-course menus.

4. Amplified Asian Influence

As mixologists continue to lean in on Asian flavors, yuzu, lychee, shiso, sake, umeshu, miso, rice mirin, and even ponzu are becoming cocktail staples to explore. This surge in Asian culinary influence introduces umami and unique flavor twists, offering ways to redefine balance in modern drinks.

5. Min Presentation, Max Flavor

Drinks were often served in simple, elegant vessels; they were often smaller, allowing craftsmanship and flavor to shine. Garnishes were purposeful and bold, such as a gourmet strawberry fruit crisp by its pastry chef, white chocolate wafers, or savory snacks like fresh-baked bread infused with fortified blueberries.

6. Luxe Low and No-Alcohol

Non-alcoholic (NA) cocktails were front and center, crafted with the same creativity as spirited options and often priced slightly lower. Non-alcoholic spirits and sparkling wines/teas rank as the No. 7 most-used ingredient across menus – above tequila, cognac and brandy. Sparkling teas like Darjeeling and Hojicha added refreshing, tannic complexity, mimicking sparkling wine in standalone pours or NA cocktails.

7. Carbonation and Texture Play

Custom carbonation setups deliver lighter, flash-carbonated cocktails for more fizz-forward beverages. Evolved milk punches incorporated yogurt, clotted cream, and even rice pudding, adding new dimensions of silky, creamy texture and effervescence to the cocktail.

8. Wine by the Glass, Redefined

London and Paris are breaking U.S. norms of pour sizes – with standard pours (4-5 ounces), tasting sizes (2 ounces), and even luxury sips (under 1 ounce) – making premium wines more accessible. At one luxury London wine club, guests can sample up to 1,000 wines by the glass, preserved via Coravin, including rare First Growth Chablis for $17 (£13) per ounce instead of $500 (£375) per bottle. 

 9. Wine Lists Educate and Entice

Wine lists often feature flavor notes, varietal breakdowns and blends alongside appellations and vintages making menus easier to navigate. In some cases, playful descriptions also demystified French, English and Italian wines. Lower markups in London and Paris made premium wines feel like they were good value. High-volume venues used systems like Le Verre de Vin and Coravin to deliver increased variety while minimizing waste to keep prices approachable.

10. Beverage Menus Tell a Story

Menus are evolving into immersive experiences, complete with heritage tales, drink illustrations, and whimsical wine descriptions. This trend was especially prevalent in London where many venues showcased cocktail and wine books celebrating their heritage and explaining the “why” behind each drink. Some were so beautifully designed that guests purchased them as storybook keepsakes, turning a night out into a lasting memory.

Wine by the Glass

Coravin, Inc. released findings from its 2025 Wine By-The-Glass Report, illuminating significant changes in how consumers engage with wine in restaurants, bars, and hospitality settings. The report, which is a result of a survey conducted with more than 1,500 independent wine drinkers across the U.S., U.K., and Australia, reveals that over half of consumers (54 percent) are ordering wine by-the-glass more often than they were two years ago, with the number rising to 58 percent among Americans.

The data underscores a clear shift toward exploration, premiumization, and mindful habits. Top motivations for choosing wines by the glass (BTG) include the ability to try premium wines without committing to a full bottle (44 percent), exploring different wines (43 percent), and pairing different glasses with food throughout a meal (34 percent). Younger consumers (ages 25-44) are the driving force behind higher-end BTG purchases, with this group significantly more willing to spend $16-$30+ per glass.

The Coravin Wine By-The-Glass Report indicates an opportunity for operators to respond to this strong demand: U.S. consumers say they would order wine BTG more often if menus offered the ability to sample before ordering (49 percent), wider selection (44 percent), half-pours (35 percent), seasonal lists (34 percent), and guaranteed freshness (31 percent). Many respondents noted they would pay more for BTG programs that offer premium wines and assure quality with every pour.

 Additional findings highlight a strong appetite for interactive wine experiences, especially among drinkers under the age of 45. Food-and-wine pairing menus, curated flights, guided tastings with sommeliers, and playful formats like blind-tasting games ranked among the most appealing BTG experiences.

Culinary and Cocktail Trends

Kimpton’s annual Culinary + Cocktail Trend Forecast returns this year to unveil the unique dining styles, bold ingredients and expert techniques set to shape the global hospitality scene in 2026. From heritage and third-culture cuisine to fruity milk alternatives, Kimpton’s global chef and bartending community are setting trends that will define food and beverages in the year ahead.

Katherine Wojcik, Director of Programs & Partnerships at IHG Hotels & Resorts said: “As guests seek deeper connections through what they eat and drink, we’re seeing a shift toward experiences that engage every sense. Cocktails, beverage programs, and food menus have become storytelling platforms – expressions of place, culture, and creativity. Our chefs and bartenders blend global inspiration with local character to craft drinks and dishes that surprise, delight, and invite conversation. It’s not about chasing trends – it’s about leading with authenticity, artistry, and a touch of play.”

This year’s Kimpton Culinary + Cocktail Trends are: 

On the Plate: The Culinary Concepts Coming to Pass

Charcoal Gets Fired Up 

Driven by a desire to reconnect with authentic flavors and culinary craftsmanship, charcoal will experience a renaissance both as an ingredient and as a medium for cooking. Whether it’s protein or veggies, guests can expect to specifically experience Binchotan, a Japanese white charcoal prized for its minimal smoke and odor. Expect to see menu items like charred cauliflower satay with lemon cream at select properties in the coming months.

Pancakes Get a Passport

As global cuisines become more accessible, international pancake variations like Moroccan Msemen, Korean Hotteok and Vietnamese Bánh Xèo will serve as a versatile base for creative flavor pairings. These globally inspired pancake combinations will invite guests on a culinary journey that elevates the dish.

Heritage & Third-Culture Cuisine

In 2026, Heritage & Third-Culture Cuisine will come to the forefront of the food scene to celebrate multiple cultures all in one dish. Menu items will be unapologetic about traditional flavors and emphasize personal, lived experiences within one or multiple cultures. This style combines influences from the chef’s multicultural upbringing, creating unique dishes that defy traditional culinary boundaries. 

Citrus Gets Zesty

Varieties and unique hybrids of citrus like Calamansi, Hallabong and Sumo will appear on food and drink menus, offering a fresh alternative to their more common citrus cousins. These vibrant, flavorful fruits bring unexpected tartness, sweetness, and aroma, inspiring chefs and mixologists to experiment with imaginative pairings and presentations like yuzu-infused cocktails and Calamansi–miso dressings for seafood or salads.

Entrée-Inspired Dips

The era of Girl Dinner is gone and in its place step in ‘Snacky Suppers’ with more consumers skipping a larger traditional main course in favor of smaller plates. This will see the in-between eating aesthetic evolve as entrée-inspired dips are reimagining classic dishes like gumbo and cacio e pepe to create bite-sized noshes of beloved classic meals.

Lamberto Valdez Lara, Executive Chef at Kimpton Maa-Lai Bangkok, summarizes: “2026 will be the year that packs a ‘crunch’. Chefs are layering textures to create dynamic dishes that turn techniques and ingredients into added palate experiences. We’re also seeing charcoal come to the fore in a big way. This is down to its ability to impart rich flavor with global influences – like Korean Hotteok or Vietnamese Bánh Xèo. Comfort foods like pancakes are being redefined through a global lens, while natural botanicals and unique citrus varieties bring freshness and vibrancy to the plate.”

In the Glass: The Cocktail Trends Raising the Bar 

Botanicals Swap Out Sugar

As consumers embrace fresh, natural ingredients, unexpected sweetness will be on the menu in the coming year. Commonly added sugar will give way to fruit and botanicals like rose, elderflower, and cherry that impart flavor and sweetness naturally.  

Texture Takes Over

Crispy, crunchy, foamy, fizzy, silky – texture will take over in 2026. Whether it’s a matcha with creamy foam and a crunchy topping or gummy boba in a silky-smooth latte, across the kitchen and bar, chefs and bartenders will experiment with ingredients that add textural complexity and juxtaposition across the palate, transforming every bite and sip into a multisensory experience.

Going Bananas for Banana Milk

Move over oat milk. Popular in Korea, this milk alternative, often paired with coffee and espresso, will gain broad appeal globally in the coming months. With a natural sweetness and smooth, silky texture, banana milk can be paired with other sweet flavors like whipped cream, cinnamon, caramel and chocolate for a perfect morning pick me up, available on request at select Kimpton properties worldwide.

Cultivating Coffee Cultivars

What’s brewing on the coffee scene? Specialty beans, terroir flavors, climate-resilient types, co-fermented and seasonal blends will drive bold, unique coffee trends in 2026. Coffee connoisseurs will rejoice as new varietals of beans like Columbian Gesha, Ethiopian Hambela, Ethiopian Uraga Heo, Papau New Guinea Volcanic Robusta and Lijang Yunnan Bam gain traction at Kimpton properties around the world.

The Newest Spritz: The Garibaldi

The Garibaldi is going to unseat the Aperol Spritz as the new favorite aperitivo cocktail. Low ABV but high in refreshing flavor, menus will feature variations using combinations of unique citrus and Italian aperitifs. 

Layered Drinks

Taking “eating with your eyes first” to the next level, blended beverages will be replaced with drinks featuring distinct layers of flavor that you can see and taste creating a feast for the eyes and tastebuds. From cocktails to coffee beverages, layered beverages will bring together delicious taste pairings to indulge in.

Garden to Glass: Plants

With the popularity of herbal and earthy drink flavors on the rise, plants including aloe, chayote, eucalyptus, and pepperberry will appear in more cocktails as the latest evolution of the industry’s garden to glass movement. Garden to glass offers guests the opportunity to taste the freshest seasonal, locally sourced ingredients possible. 

Cocktails Get Techy

Bars will transition from smoke to aromatic machines and adapt innovative processes, including switching and sous-pression that rely on deep-freezing to alter or release flavor. Watch this trend come to life in the cocktails “Berry Opera,” which uses lacto-fermentation to create a homemade berry vinegar that pairs with peach, raspberry and hibiscus tea; and “Almost Famous,” which leverages molecular gastronomy spheres to blend fat washed whiskey with black truffle oil, curaçao, chocolate absinthe and orange bitter spheres for a savory delight.  

Wine: Asia-Pacific on the Rise, Bordeaux is Back, & Spanish Wine Cocktails Get Fizzy

Asia-Pacific wines and fizzy Spanish wine cocktails, like Kalimotxo, Tinto Verano, and Rebujito will grow in global popularity, while Bordeaux, side-lined for other popular grapes over the years, will enjoy a comeback on wine menus. With that, wine cocktails are rising to the surface, with creative mixology bringing to life beverages like “Sakura Sake Spritz,” which mixes Sake, gin, Sakura, lime juice and Cava; and “Bordeaux Berry Fizz,” which features Bordeaux, white wine, blackberry liqueur, lemon juice and simple syrup.

Jim Wrigley, Beverage Manager of Kimpton Seafire Resort + Spasummarizes: “Tech is transforming every corner of our lives, and our drinks will be no exception. 2026 will see more innovations like aroma technology and cryogenics release new flavors at the bar. We’ll also see layered drinks that are as beautiful to look at as they are to taste, a re-envisioning of the garden-to-glass botanical cocktails, and stalwart spirituous serves superseded by low-ABV alternatives like The Garibaldi. Ingredients like banana milk, with its natural sweetness and velvety texture will allow us to reimagine what comfort in a cup looks like, as guests seek real experiences amongst all of the screen time. It’s a time of curiosity and creativity, especially for Kimpton.”

Baum+Whiteman Forecast Reshaping the Industry

The Baum+Whiteman 2026 forecast maintains the restaurant industry is being reshaped by three powerful forces: the mainstreaming of global and ethnic cuisines, the use of artificial intelligence as a creative tool in menu development, and the combined impact of protein obsession and GLP-1 weight-loss drugs on how consumers order and eat. 

Ethnic food is no longer niche, with upscale Indian restaurants breaking price and perception barriers, new-wave Caribbean cuisine emerging as the next major flavor movement, and ethnic steakhouses thriving by pairing classic steakhouse formats with globally inspired starters while keeping the core protein experience simple and premium. Artificial intelligence is expected to influence menu creation by helping chefs engineer multi-sensory dishes that balance crunch, heat, creaminess, tang, and aroma, while also accelerating the creation of new flavors through fermentation and data-driven experimentation. Ingredient and flavor trends point toward fermented honey replacing hot honey, toum becoming a go-to condiment, cardamom and berbere gaining prominence, kimchi appearing in unexpected applications, mushrooms expanding beyond lion’s mane into beverages and supplements, beef tallow returning as seed oils fall out of favor, and chili crunch evolving to emphasize flavor over heat. At the same time, nostalgia and visual appeal are driving the return of foods like crab rangoon, conchas, panaderias, and other retro or culturally rooted items. 

The rise of GLP-1 drugs is creating a “weight-loss economy” in which users spend significantly less on food and alcohol, avoid carbs and desserts, and seek smaller portions with higher protein and fiber, forcing restaurants to rethink portion sizes, menu structure, appetizer strategies, and beverage programs. Protein is being added to nearly everything, from coffee to desserts, while fiber is emerging as the next major functional ingredient, often delivered through drinks and fortified foods rather than traditional cooking. 

New coffee cultures, particularly Yemeni and Filipino coffeehouses, are growing as alcohol-free, community-oriented “third places” built around bold flavors, late hours, and social connection. Finally, regulatory pressure is increasing, with New York City introducing sugar warnings on menus and California mandating allergen disclosures for large chains, signaling a broader shift toward transparency that is likely to spread nationwide.

Flavor of the Year

McCormick unveiled its 2026 Flavor of the Year: Black Currant, a berry featuring a distinct yet balanced flavor profile that’s sweet, tart, and rich. Alongside this, McCormick also announced the 2026 Flavor Forecast®, their annual report showcasing the latest culinary trends shaping the way people prepare and enjoy food worldwide. 

Since 2000, the McCormick Flavor Forecast has explored what is shaping the future of flavor globally. It has defined and influenced trends over the years, predicting the rise of everything from Chipotle and Pumpkin Pie Spice to Ube, Korean BBQ, and ‘Swicy’. Each year, the report looks at what’s new and next, identifying the key flavors consumers can expect to see in the coming months and years. 

Black Currant berries are native to central and northern Europe and northern Asia. They combine tart-and-tangy with a sweet, fruity flavor that’s earthy, slightly floral and herbal. The dark purple fruit has been popular for centuries in specific regions as an ingredient in jams, syrups, candies, desserts, drinks and liqueurs. It’s quickly gaining popularity and is forecast to show up on global menus soon.​ 

Alongside the Flavor of the Year, McCormick has identified three trends in its 2026 Flavor Forecast: 

Attainable Opulence: Consumers are using extravagant treats and experiences as an escape, bringing elevated flavors into everyday life, not just special occasions. Example recipes include: 

• Blood Orange Cardamom Sour 
• Sweet and Tangy Stuffed Chicken Tenders 

Simple to Spectacular: In a digital-forward world, people are finding beauty in the basics by cooking with care and using simple, quality ingredients combined with technique and time – with that, anything humble becomes a showstopper. Example recipes include: 

• Pickled Veggie Toast on Homemade Sourdough Bread 
• Easy Focaccia Halloumi BLT  

Sauce from Somewhere: ‘Flavor fluency’ is more common than ever. People are looking for ways to connect cultures, bring regional tastes of the world forward, and enhance daily meal routines through novel sauces, dips, drizzles and spreads that spark curiosity and inspire trial, connect cultures, and – above all – help create flavor exploration. Example recipes include: 

• Roasted Chicken with Toum  
• Sambal Crusted Lamb Chomps